We study the way in which geography and other forces constrain and shape people and nations. By analyzing the forces that affect world leaders, we can understand and often predict their actions and behaviors, which are far more limited than they might otherwise appear.
While the media concentrates on the subjective desires of leaders voiced at press conferences, Rea concentrates on the various constraints upon their behavior — geographical, political, economic — that are concrete but never admitted to publicly. One question out of many: How to use crises as catalysts?
The shift in demographic and economic weight from Europe to East Asia has intensified over the past 20 years, which makes East Asia and its coastal areas increasingly important – a critical shift in current and future international relations dynamics underscored by the United States’ (US) “Pivot to Asia” or East.
However, China – unlike Washington’s previous rival, the Soviet Union – is fully integrated into the international economic order. For this reason, according to several US strategists, the only way to contain it is through the creation of two giant regional trade agreements excluding Beijing (and Moscow) – the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
While the hotly-debated TTIP between the United States and the European Union should become a sort of „economic NATO“ the equally controversial TPP embodies the “economic arm” of Washington’s rebalance to Asia. The latter, in turn, has also a military dimension represented by the U.S. commitment to put 60 percent of its naval forces in the Pacific by 2020.
Geopolitics allows us to place an event or action within a larger framework so that we can determine its potential significance, as well as identify connections among seemingly disparate trends.
The global geopolitical situation is characterized by constant yet discontinuous change: the continued reshuffling in response to the Arab Spring, the changing landscape in Eurasia, political upheaval in Southeast Asia, the refocusing of US foreign policy, and radicalization of European level politics. Join us for an informed scan of the geopolitical landscape and participate in a primer of the latest thinking on current geopolitical challenges and those just over the horizon.
We always start with a wide ranged economic research. Up to date analysis of economic figures can lead to accurate detection of undesirable developments. This is the basis for near and long term economic predictions including their political implications.
How we should understand and organize real capitalism is one of the major economic tasks of our time. Many think capitalism means less as possible regulation and maximum freedom of markets. Had it proved correct? What can we learn from the past in this regard? Can lead capitalism to oligarchy? And how we can avoid this?
Especially after the financial Crisis 2008 it has become obvious that total free capitalism can destroy itself. A one-sided accumulation of assets is continuously reducing the general demand for goods and services. An excessive proportion of inequality can be very dangerous for the political stability of a country. Is there an effective fix without a dramatic rise in taxation? We think yes.
Growing income inequality is fuelled not by bad corporate governance but by “far deeper forces,” including the development of technology, the emergence of a global market and the need for Innovation. These forces are increasing the demand for skills and pushing pay higher. These are not going to be affected by corporate governance. The right debate is about how we get the innovation and creativity we need. We need to talk about innovation, real sustainability and reforms – not about corporations and greed. It’s about decision-making. We have to go for transformation. We have to talk about job creation, not job security.
Two truths underpin the dilemma of capitalism: while it remains the greatest source of wealth creation ever developed, its collateral damage is increasingly alarming and unsustainable.
No other economic system has brought so many people out of poverty and yet embedded in the design of today’s corporations are a number of externalities leading to calamitous environmental collapse, rapacious natural resource depletion, growing disparities in wealth and incomes, as well as increasing social displacement and insecurity.
If prosperity is created by solving human problems, a key question for society is what kind of economic system will solve the most problems for the most people most quickly. This is the genius of capitalism: it is an unmatched evolutionary system for finding Solutions.
It can be challenging to distinguish between problem-solving and problem-creating economic activity. And who has the moral right to decide? Democracy is the best mechanism humans have come up with for navigating the trade-offs and weaknesses inherent in capitalism. Democracies allow its inevitable conflicts to be resolved in a way that maximizes fairness and legitimacy and that broadly reflects society’s views.
Seeing prosperity as solutions helps explain why democracy is so highly correlated with prosperity. Democracies actually help create prosperity because they do several things better than other systems of government. They tend to build economies that are more inclusive, enabling more citizens to be both creators of solutions and customers for other people’s solutions. And they offer the best way to resolve conflicts over whether economic activity is generating solutions or problems. Many (though not all) government regulations are created to do just that—to encourage economic activity that solves problems and to discourage economic activity that creates them—thus fostering trust and cooperation in Society.
Since 1972 we saw an astonishment improvement of the economic and military power of China. In the 90’s we experienced the end of the “cold war” and BRIC countries substantially improve their financial situation. Since the implementation of the Euro in 2002 we see strong efforts of the European Union to become a “United States of Europe”.
What does the rise of terrorism mean to the West? Are these trends a real change of balance of power?
What big changes are ahead and how do all these development can affect decision takers in official and private positions?
Is financial stability guaranteed for the long term? Will the bubbles pop and shake up dramatically politics and economics?
Are we in the “new normal” very low interest rates for much longer than initially thought? Many questions that show the complexity of our global system. A continuously deep and independent analysis of these matters allows us to present accurate predictions but also solutions how to adjust and improve.